While new home construction prices fluctuate over time, some markets are more susceptible to change than others.
NewHomeSource examined active listings, affordability, community count, employment growth, homeowner insurance burden, net migration, and price appreciation to determine that these are the markets that are at moderate risk of falling prices for new homes.
These mild-risk markets will not be immune to correction, particularly as broader cyclical shifts continue to unfold. However, they demonstrate greater overall stability, supported by factors such as sustained affordability, slower supply growth, and strong underlying fundamentals, including migration and employment gains.
In these twelve markets, NewHomeSource expects price corrections to be more limited, generally in the range of 5% to 10% from peak.
Boston: Slower employment growth than comparable markets.
Charleston: The Market is feeling cost pressure from continuing home price growth.
Charlotte: Recent listings growth but remains economically strong.
Chicago: Some softening in affordability, but a tight resale supply.
Cincinnati: Affordability pressure is building, but there is a more limited supply and lower insurance costs.
Indianapolis: Existing home price growth layered with slight affordability dips.
Los Angeles/OC: Sluggish job growth, and while affordability has remained stable, it is consistently low.
Minneapolis: Constrained supply but employment softening.
New York: Consistently unaffordable, but supply remains tight.
Raleigh: YOY growth in listings, but underlying market demand is holding.
Sacramento: Remote work reversal has potential to dampen inflow.
San Diego: Small migration volume but limited affordability change as prices are already high.
What this means for homebuyers: In these mild-risk markets, price drops – if they occur – are likely to be smaller and less disruptive, often in the 5–10% range. For buyers, that means there may be room for negotiation without the risk of dramatic market swings. Strong fundamentals like stable job growth and limited supply suggest these areas could remain competitive, so being prepared to act quickly can still make the difference in securing your ideal home.
