If you’ve been wondering whether rents will keep rising, when competition for apartments might ease, or whether it makes sense to keep renting versus buying, late 2025 trends are starting to provide some clarity.
Over the past few years, a surge of new apartment construction in many cities helped keep rent growth in check. Now, as building activity slows, the national rental market is entering a more balanced and predictable phase.
Demand Stayed Strong Through a Slower Economy
Even as job growth softened in the second half of 2025, renter demand remained surprisingly strong. Some large apartment operators described 2025 as one of the strongest years for lease signings in decades.
That resilience shows that the need for rental housing didn’t disappear—even as the broader economy cooled.
Job Growth Will Be Softer, But Not Weak
Looking ahead, apartment operators expect job growth in 2026 to be modest but steady. Many of the strongest rental markets continue to be in the Sunbelt, where business relocations and a lower cost of living help support demand.
For renters, this suggests that while the economy is normalizing, the foundation for stable housing demand remains intact.
More Renters Are Staying Put
One of the clearest trends nationwide is how few renters are moving. Apartment companies continue to report very low turnover, with occupancy rates hovering between 95% and 97%.
High mortgage rates and elevated home prices are major reasons many renters are choosing to renew their leases instead of buying. In 2025, only a small share of renters left their apartments to purchase a home, and in many high-cost markets, owning still costs significantly more per month than renting.
If it feels like fewer friends or neighbors are relocating, the data backs that up.
Signs of Rent Growth Are Returning
Starting late last year and continuing into early 2026, apartment communities began pulling back on discounts and move-in concessions. As occupancy firmed, rents for both new leases and renewals started to edge higher.
Most forecasts call for rent growth to remain modest this year, with a stronger pickup expected in the second half of 2026. For renters, that likely means your next lease renewal could come with a small increase.
New Apartment Construction Is Slowing
Perhaps the biggest shift renters will feel in the coming years is the slowdown in new apartment construction. After record levels in 2024 and 2025, the number of new units coming online is expected to drop sharply.
With fewer brand-new options to choose from, competition among renters could increase slightly, and rent growth may strengthen as supply and demand rebalance.
For households deciding whether to move, renew a lease, or start saving for a future home, understanding these shifts can help with planning. While the rental market is becoming more stable, affordability challenges remain—making it especially important to stay informed about local trends and longer-term supply changes.
The insights in this article were drawn from a more in-depth research report published through Zonda’s National Outlook subscription.
