Entry-level homes — typically the most affordable third of new homes in a market — have seen significant price growth over the past decade. Nationally, prices have increased 40% since 2016. In several high-growth metros, appreciation has been even stronger, pushing affordability to its limits for many buyers.
See also: Early 2026 Housing Trends: Rates Improve, Incentives Expand, Confidence Lags
Now, however, some of those same markets are beginning to show signs of slowing price growth, creating potential opportunities for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.
See also: Diverse, Younger, Ready to Buy: Inside the Demographic Trends Set to Drive Housing Demand
The Top 5 Markets for Long-Term Entry-Level Price Growth
The following metros have seen the largest price increases for entry-level new homes since 2016. While long-term appreciation has been substantial, recent trends suggest conditions may be starting to shift in favor of buyers.
Up 92.8% since 2016
Median entry-level price: ~$430,000
Down 2.1% year over year
After several years of rapid price growth, buyers in Salt Lake City are beginning to see some relief as prices ease slightly from recent highs.
2. Provo
Up 89.3% since 2016
Median entry-level price: ~$422,000
Up 2.1% year over year
Provo remains competitive, supported by strong local demand that continues to keep prices elevated despite broader market shifts.
3. Phoenix
Up 83.3% since 2016
Median entry-level price: ~$366,000
Flat year over year at –0.1%
After years of rapid growth, price appreciation has leveled off, offering a more stable environment for entry-level buyers compared with recent years.
See related: Phoenix Housing Market 2026: Why Buyers Are Waiting — and What Could Get Them Back In
4. Columbus
Up 81.5% since 2016
Median entry-level price: ~$339,000
Down 2.4% year over year
Cooling prices may create new opportunities for Columbus first-time buyers who were previously priced out during the market’s peak.
5. Cincinnati
Up 76.9% since 2016
Median entry-level price: ~$296,000
Up 4.0% year over year
While still seeing strong short-term growth, Cincinnati remains one of the more affordable large metros for entry-level buyers.
What Buyers Should Take Away
These markets share a common pattern: strong price gains over the past decade, paired in many cases with recent flattening or modest declines.
For buyers, this shift may signal that peak pricing is behind us — at least temporarily. Slower price growth can mean more negotiating power, more inventory returning to the market, and better opportunities to enter markets that previously felt out of reach.
For shoppers who paused their search due to affordability challenges, 2026 may bring improved entry points compared with recent years.
The insights in this article were taken from a more in-depth research report published in Zonda’s National Outlook.
