For new-home shoppers, housing starts data – the number of new homes builders are breaking ground on – offers a valuable lens to evaluate market conditions. Looking at the markets where housing starts activity is increasing – or decreasing – can provide information about the housing market landscape and what to expect in the coming months.
More housing starts mean more homes will hit the market in the coming months, leading to more choices in terms of floor plans, communities, and price points. It also leads to the possibility of greater competition among builders, leading to incentives – such as rate buydowns and upgraded finishes – particularly in housing markets where demand has slowed.
Even in the current housing market, characterized by high interest rates and affordability challenges, builders are still bringing new homes to market and breaking ground on new starts. That said, activity levels vary widely depending on where you are shopping.
“Housing starts data simply measures how many new homes are built in a given market,” says NewHomeSource chief economist Ali Wolf. “If you are living in low supply, land constrained markets, housing starts can tell you how much builders will add to the overall inventory pool. For example, Los Angeles/Orange County is the second largest market by overall population, but doesn’t even crack the top 25 for new housing construction. Gaps like this help you understand that new supply won’t help solve the affordability challenges anytime soon.”
Starts data from NewHomeSource parent company Zonda reveals the 25 markets with the highest levels of new home construction based on the number of housing starts in the second quarter of 2025. These markets account for the majority of the country’s new housing supply. Understanding where construction is rising and falling can provide valuable insight as a buyer for future market conditions.
Top-of-the-top markets
The top five markets – Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Atlanta – totaled 140,610 starts over the past year, accounting for 43% of all starts across the top 25 markets. Starts activity in the five markets has increased by 19% since 2019, illustrating the scale of activity growth in some markets.
Activity was flat on a year-over-year basis in Dallas, but the market still topped the list with a total of 45,229 starts over the past 12 months. Compared to 2019, starts in Dallas are up 38%.
Houston and Phoenix ranked second and third for total starts despite small declines (1% and 2%, respectively) compared to last year. Starts activity is 31% higher than 2019 in Houston and 4% higher than 2019 in Phoenix.
San Antonio stands out for its outsized growth. The market has experienced the largest increase in starts activity since 2019 among the top 25 markets at 46%. As a result, San Antonio now ranks fourth with 18,294 housing starts.
Slowing markets
In contrast to San Antonio, some markets in the top 25 have seen fewer homes break ground as construction momentum is slowing. These shifts could reflect changing market dynamics, including affordability challenges, slower demand, or reduced migration.
While still the fifth largest market for total housing starts with 17,389, starts activity in Atlanta has declined by 25% since 2019.
Denver (-29%) and Seattle (-23%) both have also seen housing starts fall by more than 20% since before the pandemic.
Looking with a short-term lens, several markets have experienced significant declines in starts activity compared to last year. Starts in Sarasota, Florida (-25%); Lakeland, Florida (-25%); Jacksonville (-24%); Riverside/San Bernardino (-23%); Tampa (-17%); Austin (-15%) have declined the most compared to last year.
Rising markets
Starts in general are more muted than last year, with just seven markets (San Antonio, Washington, D.C., Miami, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Boise, and Seattle) increasing on a year-over-year basis.
Minneapolis and Boise experienced the largest year-over-year increases at 7% each. Compared to 2019, starts rose 2% in Minneapolis and 17% in Boise.
The growth of San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston since 2019 were highlighted above but they were not the only standout markets.
Indianapolis (30%), Sacramento (27%), and Miami (25)% all reported strong starts growth compared to 2019.
Additionally, despite heavy declines in starts activity on a year-over-year basis, two Florida markets—Lakeland and Sarasota—experienced significant growth compared to 2019, at 41% and 37%, respectively.
