An understanding of the resale market can be an important tool in the search for a new home. It may sound backward, but keeping an eye on resale inventory can help you score a better deal on a new-build home.
Why it matters: When there are more resale homes on the market, builders have to compete harder — and that can mean better prices, incentives, and flexibility for you.
When resale inventory is tight, new homes become more valuable simply because they are available. In these markets, competition for these homes may be higher and negotiations may be tighter.
Zonda, NewHomeSource’s parent company, analyzed resale inventory trends since 2019 — the last “normal” housing market. The results indicate wide regional variations in supply trends, which can have an impact on builders and buyers in the new-home market. In some areas, buyers have more choices than they’ve had in years, while in others, competition remains fierce.
“In high-inventory areas like Texas and Florida, buyers can take advantage of stronger negotiating power,” says NewHomeSource chief economist Ali Wolf. “In tighter areas like the Midwest and West Coast, acting quickly and securing builder incentives early may be key.”
Wolf says understanding the local supply story can give home buyers an edge, helping them make smarter, more confident buying decisions.
Zonda’s analysis of resale inventory reveals a few regional trends for would-be buyers to consider:
Sunshine State Supply Surge: Several Florida markets have significantly more resale inventory than they did in 2019:
Lakeland (+61.1%)
Cape Coral (+35.5%)
Orlando (+31.0%)
Sarasota (+20.4%)
The increase in resale supply means builders are competing harder for buyers - a reason Florida featured prominently in last week’s look at incentives.
Bigger in Texas: The four major Texas metro markets all experienced increases in resale supply since 2019, offering powers more options and negotiating power:
Austin (+38.2%)
San Antonio (+38.1%)
Dallas(+17.2%)
Houston (4.5% )
In response to the resale supply changes, builders in these markets may respond with more flexibility on pricing, incentives, and closing cost assistance.
Tight Supply in Midwest and Northeast:
Chicago (-61.1%)
Philadelphia (-51.1%)
New York (-48.9%)
Baltimore (-46.4%)
Indianapolis (-24.4%)
Minneapolis (-21.7%)
New homes may face less competition but could sell quickly due to lower overall supply in these markets.
West Coast Remains Constrained: Excluding San Francisco (+14.2%), most major West Coast markets analyzed by Zonda have limited resale inventory, meaning new home options may remain tighter with firmer pricing.
The Bottom Line
Conditions vary even within a given region, meaning there is no one-size-fits-all trend defining the market. You could encounter a buyer’s market, a seller’s market, or something in between with each meaning something different for competition, pricing, incentives, and negotiations.
Do your homework. Know the trends. Make confident moves.
