If you’re wondering about the best time to buy a new home, examining the housing market behavior over last five years may offer some insight.
NewSourceHome data shows the housing market has swung from enormous demand in 2020, to steadier, more measured growth in 2025. Understanding these patterns helps buyers separate short-term headlines from long-term opportunities.
What History Tells Us About the Housing Market
From Massive Demand to Calm and Calculating: In 2020 and 2021, the pandemic sparked one of the most frenetic housing booms in recent history. Sales peaked at 3.4 per community in March 2021. Fueled by rock-bottom interest rates and widespread migration, builders struggled to keep up, regularly capping sales despite overwhelming demand.
2022 hailed a dramatic shift in the market. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes cooled demand, pushing sales below 2.0 per community for the first time since 2019. For many buyers, affordability suddenly became the biggest obstacle, sidelining households that had been eager to move during the boom.
A Period of Recovery: The pendulum began to swing back in 2023 and 2024. Sales rebounded to 2.8 in March 2023 and 2.9 in March 2024, suggesting that while higher rates were still a challenge, demand for new homes had not disappeared. Buyers were more selective, but the appetite for homeownership remained resilient.
Cooling in 2025, but with Perspective: In 2025, sales have eased once more, dropping from a spring peak of 2.6 to 2.2 in July. On the surface, that 15.2% decline could indicate a weakening market, but the data tells a different story. July 2025’s sales rate was still up by 10.1% when compared to July 2019 and nearly 7% above July 2022. In other words, the market has backed off compared to 2024’s peaks. However, the market remains stronger than in several key past periods.
Where Sales Are Still Surging
Not all markets are moving at the same speed. South Carolina is outperforming the national trend. Myrtle Beach and Columbia both hit 3.8 sales per community in July 2025 tied for first in the 50 major markets tracked by NewHomeSource, while Charleston placed fourth, reaching 3.3. Columbia’s growth is notable, doubling its 2019 pace with half of the searches coming from out-of-town buyers in Charlotte, New York City, and Charleston.
Other notable markets include Durham, North Carolina (+22.5% year-over-year), Sarasota, Florida (+5.2%), and Port St. Lucie, Florida (+1.3%). These gains show that while the national trend is moderation, regional growth stories remain compelling.
What It Means for Buyers
Is it the right time to buy? If you want to buy a new home this year, here’s what the historical data tells us:
Less frenzy, more leverage.
The bidding wars of 2020-21 are unlikely to return soon, giving buyers more time and negotiating power.
A resilient market.
Even with higher rates, demand is still above pre-pandemic levels, reinforcing housing’s long-term investment value.
Regional opportunity.
Targeting high-growth markets such as South Carolina or parts of Florida and North Carolina may provide both affordability and appreciation potential.
The bottom line: When tackling today’s market, be patient and do your research. The data shows that new homebuyers can find affordable housing in 2025, especially in regions where demand continues to outpace the national trend.
Want to know about the best time to purchase a home? Sign up for the NewHomeSource newsletter.
