A recent NewHomeSource post explored South Carolina and the factors behind why the Palmetto State is home to some of the nation’s hottest housing markets. From strong population growth to high-income job growth to manufacturing investment, South Carolina’s economy remains strong, and the signs are positive for the housing market in 2026 and beyond.
See related: Prices Stable, Incentives Available, More Homes Coming: Is This the Calm Before the Buying Surge?
Las Vegas, however, is a market that may be trending in the opposite direction. While the Sin City was able to ride the post-pandemic recovery wave longer than many other markets, the economic cracks are beginning to show in one of the nation’s largest new-home markets. Unlike South Carolina, where high-income job growth is fueling economic momentum, Las Vegas’s dependence on the leisure and hospitality sectors is creating headwinds for the economy and its housing market. As one of the nation’s most cycle-sensitive markets, Las Vegas is beginning to show early warning signs. An analysis by NewHomeSource parent company Zonda takes a look at what these warning signs are and what that could mean for homebuyers.
See related: Labor Market Slowdown in 2025: What Rising Underemployment Means for Housing Demand
Lack of Industry Diversification
Job growth in Las Vegas has been sluggish over the past year, with limited gains in high-income sectors like finance, information, and professional and business services. The unemployment rate in Sin City reached 6.0% over the summer amid several high-profile layoffs in the entertainment, hospitality, and food and beverage sectors.
Las Vegas’ reliance on tourism has limited employment diversification in the market. Tourism accounts for over one in four jobs in Las Vegas compared to one in ten jobs nationally. Conversely, education and health service jobs account for just over 11% of employment in Las Vegas compared to roughly one in six jobs nationally.
For a market heavily reliant on tourism, Las Vegas has seen visitor volume decline every month in 2025 through July. In fact, July’s total of 3.1 million visitors was down 7.6% from the start of the year and 12.0% year over year. While tourism often dips in the summer, the pace and scale of the dip in 2025 goes beyond seasonality and suggests a softening for the Las Vegas economy. Other tourism-heavy markets like Orlando have outperformed national norms in terms of low unemployment and above-average employment growth. The comparison to Orlando shows that Las Vegas’ struggles are not inevitable for all tourism-centric economies, but Las Vegas’ focus as a gambling-centric destination could indicate the city is feeling the effects of broader consumer confidence issues.
Demographic Mix
Another factor shaping the economy and housing market in Las Vegas is the shifting demographic mix in the market. The city has long attracted newcomers from other states and abroad, but recent trends point to a slowdown. Nevada’s share of domestic migration turned negative in 2024 for the first time since 2011.
This matters because out-of-market buyers make up a large portion of the Vegas homebuying pool. If fewer new residents are arriving both housing demand and construction labor supply could feel the strain.
Housing Implications
The strains in employment, tourism, and demographics converge most clearly in the housing market. Activity in Las Vegas has been muted as fewer buyers are active, and more buyers are walking away from deals. As such, the count of active listings in Las Vegas has increased, up more than 60% compared to last summer.
Las Vegas ranks as one of the least affordable markets on the West Coast, even compared to high-priced markets such as Seattle and San Francisco. As of June, just 15.2% of Vegas households could afford the median new home and just one in five households could afford the median existing home. Should tourism remain muted and employment and income growth slow further, these affordability strains could become even more exacerbated.
The employment, demographic, and economic vulnerabilities may seem concentrated to Las Vegas, but the trends playing out in Las Vegas may signal larger shifts about the direction of the national market.
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