Phoenix’s job market remains strong, and buyers have more options than they did a year ago — but many are still waiting for the right moment to move forward.
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As 2026 gets underway, Phoenix feels like a market in pause mode. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but many buyers are taking a cautious approach, watching home prices, mortgage rates, and job trends before making a decision. The good news for buyers is that the market’s underlying fundamentals remain strong, giving reasons for optimism once confidence returns.
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Jobs Are Stable — But Buyers Want More Certainty
Phoenix’s economy has outperformed many major metros. High-income jobs grew 2% year over year, supported by a growing industrial sector and expanding manufacturing base.
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Even with that stability, national economic headlines and ongoing affordability concerns are shaping how buyers feel about entering the market. Many Phoenix shoppers say they still want to buy — but are waiting for more clarity before committing.
Instead of rushing into purchases, buyers are taking more time to evaluate their finances, compare options, and wait until they feel more confident about long-term costs.
Sales Have Slowed, Giving Buyers More Choices
New home sales have softened, and inventory is rising. For buyers, that shift brings clear advantages: more quick move-in homes, more builder incentives such as rate buydowns or closing cost assistance, and more time to compare neighborhoods and communities.
Phoenix also currently has one of the highest supplies of quick move-in homes among top U.S. markets — around five per community — though that number is beginning to improve.
What this means for buyers: With more available homes and fewer rushed decisions, buyers may have more negotiating power and more flexibility than during the market’s peak years.
Master-Planned Communities Are Still Outperforming
Even as overall sales slow, master-planned communities continue to attract strong interest. Many buyers are gravitating toward areas that offer amenities, walkability, schools, and lifestyle programming.
Communities such as Estrella, Superstition Vistas, Teravalis, and the up-and-coming NorthPark continue to draw attention from buyers focused on lifestyle and long-term growth potential. For buyers planning to stay in their homes longer, these communities remain a compelling option.
Phoenix’s Demographics Support Long-Term Demand
While many buyers are cautious today, Phoenix’s population trends point to strong long-term demand once confidence improves.
Baby Boomers (19%) are drawn to Phoenix’s climate and amenities but tend to move selectively.
Gen X (18%) often have the equity to move but want a strong reason to do so.
Millennials (28%) represent the market’s largest move-up buyer group.
Gen Z (20%) shows strong interest in homeownership but is still early in the income growth cycle.
Together, these groups support continued housing demand even as short-term activity slows.
Looking Ahead: Confidence May Be the Missing Piece
Several factors could influence how quickly buyers return to the market, including job-market changes, immigration policies that affect major employers such as TSMC, and whether affordability improves through pricing, wages, or smaller home sizes.
One thing remains clear: Phoenix still has substantial pent-up demand. Once buyers feel more secure, activity could return quickly. For buyers who are financially ready, today’s environment may offer an opportunity — more incentives, more choices, and less competition than in recent years.
These insights were pulled from Zonda’s latest research presented at Phoenix Dealmakers in late January.
