As families start thinking about a potential move this spring, new weekly sales data from major Western and Sunbelt markets shows a mixed picture. Buyers are still out there — but activity varies widely from one metro to the next. Some areas are heating up, while others are cooling under the weight of high prices and elevated mortgage rates.
See also: February Housing Market Check In: A Mixed but Hopeful Start to Spring
This snapshot comes from Zonda, NewHomeSource's parent company, and the takeaway is simple: your experience this spring will depend heavily on where you’re shopping.
How Today’s Sales Compare to Last Year
Year‑over‑year numbers highlight just how differently local markets are performing. While many metros saw fewer new‑home sales compared to early 2025, several standouts are moving in the opposite direction.
San Diego posted a nearly 28% increase in sales — a sign that strong demand is holding up despite higher borrowing costs.
Northern Virginia and Salt Lake City also saw solid growth, supported by strong job markets and steady buyer interest.
On the other hand:
Colorado Springs and suburban Maryland recorded some of the steepest pullbacks, each down about 36% from last year.
Southern California also saw a noticeable decline.
See also: Why Dallas Outbuilds Los Angeles Six to One
For shoppers in these slower markets, this could mean more inventory, more builder incentives, and more room to negotiate.
A Longer Look Back: How Today Compares to 2019
Looking beyond the past year and comparing today’s activity to 2019 — the last full pre‑pandemic benchmark — gives a clearer sense of how markets have shifted structurally.
See also: Where Attached Homes Are Gaining Ground
San Diego stands out again, with sales running 45% higher than the same period in 2019.
Southern California overall is slightly above pre‑COVID levels, thanks to strong local economies and long‑standing housing shortages.
Meanwhile, several Western metros are seeing much softer activity than before the pandemic:
Denver sales are down more than 55% compared to early 2019.
Colorado Springs and Phoenix are also well below their 2019 pace.
For buyers in these areas, the market may feel calmer and less competitive than it has in years.
What This Means for Spring Home Shoppers
If there’s one theme running through all of these trends, it’s how sensitive today’s market is to mortgage rates. Even small rate changes can quickly influence how many buyers feel comfortable jumping in — which is why some metros are gaining momentum while others are losing it.
As we move deeper into 2026:
Shoppers in softer markets may find more choices, better pricing, and more builder incentives.
Shoppers in high‑demand areas should be ready for faster‑moving inventory and fewer concessions.
No matter where you’re looking, keeping an eye on local trends — not just national headlines — can help you make a more confident decision this spring.
The insights in this article were taken from Zonda’s more in-depth Weekly Sales and Traffic report.
