New home sales remain concentrated in many of the fast-growing markets buyers have been watching for years. But the latest data shows an important shift: the market isn’t falling apart — it’s adjusting. After several years of unusually strong demand, activity is beginning to return to more typical levels, creating a different environment for buyers in 2026.
A ranking of the top 100 new home markets shows that sales over the past 12 months are down about 8% compared with a year ago. While that decline may sound significant, it largely reflects a normalization following the exceptionally strong demand seen between 2021 and 2023.
For buyers, a slower pace often means less urgency, fewer bidding situations, and more time to compare options before making a decision.
Texas Continues to Lead New Home Sales
Texas remains the country’s dominant region for new home construction and sales. Dallas–Fort Worth ranks No. 1 nationally, with more than 41,000 new homes sold in the past year, followed closely by Houston at No. 2 with nearly 38,000 homes sold.
While Dallas has seen sales dip slightly compared with last year, Houston has posted modest growth. For buyers in these markets, strong construction activity typically means more community options and continued availability compared with tighter markets.
Sun Belt Favorites Are Cooling — Not Crashing
Popular markets such as Phoenix, San Antonio, and Austin remain among the top locations for new home sales, though most are seeing modest slowdowns compared with last year. Even so, Phoenix and San Antonio continue to sell tens of thousands of new homes annually, and Austin remains a top-five market for closings despite a more noticeable pullback from its ultra-competitive peak.
For buyers, this shift can translate into more negotiating power, increased incentives, and less pressure than during the fast-moving conditions of recent years.
Some “Quiet” Markets Are Gaining Momentum
Not all growth is happening in the usual high-profile markets. Cities such as Chicago, Boise, and several Midwestern metros — including Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Louisville — are showing steady or improving new home sales.
While these markets may not match Texas in overall volume, they are proving resilient. For buyers, this can mean more attainable price points and continued investment from builders opening new communities.
What These Trends Mean for Buyers in 2026
The broader takeaway is that today’s housing market appears more balanced than it did a few years ago. New home sales remain strong across many large metros, but the pace has normalized. That shift may create opportunities for buyers who felt sidelined during the pandemic-era rush. As builders adjust pricing strategies, offer incentives, and design homes around today’s affordability realities, buyers may find more flexibility and choice than they’ve had in recent years.
The insights in this article were taken from part of the Top 100 Metro Rankings published monthly in Zonda’s National Outlook subscription.
