While percentage-based migration stats make for more eye-grabbing headlines, the day-to-day gains and losses of residents are felt more directly by the residents in communities. After looking at net migration last week, the economic team at NewHomeSource dug into the top and bottom markets for domestic migration per day.
“The pandemic supercharged people leaving more expensive parts of the country for the more affordable Sunbelt,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist for NewHomeSource. “Places like New York and Los Angeles still have more people moving out than moving in, but the trend has slowed and there are some people moving back because they miss the lifestyle, food, and/or culture. Conversely, there is still a lot of migration into places like the Southeast, but with work-from-home less common, the Great Migration nationally is slowing.”
Daily movement to a market indicates a growing market. Such markets tend to have more job opportunities, more shops and restaurants, and rising property values. High levels of in-migration also may mean would-be buyers face more competition for homes and the need for expanded infrastructure.
However, moving to a market with less daily migration—or outmigration—is not inherently bad and might even mean more opportunities for home buyers.
To get a sense of the ‘winners’—the markets drawing in new residents—and ‘losers’—markets seeing an outward flow of residents—NHS analyzed domestic migration on a per-day basis between July 2023 and July 2024. The analysis found that many cities across the South and Sunbelt remain migration hotspots while higher-cost cities on the coasts experienced the largest outward migration.
A caveat: Being in the ‘losers’ category does not mean a market is not desirable; instead, it may be a reflection of the high costs, limited housing supply, or lifestyle trade-offs. The below list is not the end-all, be-all list for best markets to relocate to; the trends should be weighed against personal priorities—growing cities, quiet areas, active job markets, a slower pace of life, etc. The data below can offer some context to help guide buying—and migration—decisions.
Winners:
Dallas:
The Texas market average 67 new residents daily in 2024, once again claiming the top spot. The number is down significantly from the 12-month span between July 2022 and 2023, when Dallas saw 165 daily new residents.
Charlotte:
The North Carolina metro saw a gain of 67 new residents per day. While it also experienced a year-over-year dip compared to 2023, the decline was much smaller than that seen in Dallas.
Austin:
The capital city in the Lone Star State gained 61 people per day in 2024, down 37% from 2023. While still a top destination, the slowdown in migration likely reflects affordability concerns, negative press, and shifting preferences of home buyers.
Phoenix, Raleigh, and Ocala, Florida:
These three markets were the only cities to gain more people per day in 2024 than in 2023. Phoenix added 59 new residents daily, Raleigh added 48, and Ocala added 44. While geographically diverse, each market offers new residents desirable weather, relative affordability, and expanding employment hubs.
Losers:
New York:
The Big Apple experience the largest daily loss, with 402 more people moving out daily than arriving in 2024. The 2024 numbers are an improvement from 2023, when New York lost 653 people per day.
Los Angeles/Orange County:
The California market lost 335 residents daily, an improvement on the 424 residents lost daily in 2023.
Miami:
The Florida market was one of the few net negative daily migration markets to see a worsening in outmigration from 2023 to 2024. Miami lost 278 residents per day in 2024, up from 170 in 2023.
Denver and Atlanta:
The two markets joined Miami as the only other major markets that saw a worsening daily trend in 2024. Denver lost 7 residents per day in 2024, up from 3 in 2023. Atlanta swung from a net gain of 50 residents per day in 2023 to a net loss of 4 in 2024.
